Oil Companies Losing Interest In Investing In Renewables….Smart Move!

Why the oil majors are backing away from renewable energy

Chevron Corp.’s new solar and geothermal business seemed to be having a great year. In January, after just one year in operation, it had established projects with returns of 15 to 20 percent and had plans to build several geothermal plants in Europe.

Then Chevron changed its mind. In a series of transactions, it sold off the unit, as well as others that do smaller solar installations and energy efficiency upgrades, and canceled a pair of giant solar farms in Hawaii, according to reports fromBloomberg Businessweek. With that, the oil majors have beaten a near-final retreat from solar power.

Why? It is a puzzling question for those who have watched the oil majors bestow their dollars and attention on clean energy and a few years later abruptly walk out the door.

Three of the supermajors — BP PLC, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell PLC — have since 2000 taken on ventures in wind, biofuels and geothermal. All took big positions in solar, sometimes more than once. They were positioned to compete or even dominate.

Now, as solar is gaining market momentum like never before, the oil majors are nowhere to be found.

Analysts who cover the industry say it isn’t that oil and gas companies want to kill their brood of adopted low-carbon children, or that they even perceive them as a threat. They have a straightforward answer: The oil business is changing, and times are tough. Projects that made sky-high profits are a little lower in the sky.

“It’s not their strong suit to be spending a lot of money and time on [renewables] when they are definitely challenged in their core industry,” said Lysle Brinker, an oil and gas equity analyst at IHS.

Even those depressed profits tower over the margins earned in renewables, where projects are slow, bureaucratic and hard-won. If there are any profits to be had, they are too meager to impress an oil executive.

But there is yet another explanation.

An executive who has worked with both Chevron and the solar industry says that although the oil company was happy to nurture solar power with seed money, it lost interest when the investment began to require real money — real money for a business that, at its heart, it didn’t understand.

It’s all about the core

When talking to experts about why the oil industry has turned away from renewables, the word “core” comes up a lot. An oil industry buffeted by change has needed to return to the basics, even though the basics are a lot more exotic than they used to be.

In recent years, the major oil players have been absorbed with searching for and extracting fuels from a bewildering array of new places.

A growing portion of oil companies’ portfolios these days is in the “unconventionals” — the oil sands of Alberta, the natural gas formations of the Marcellus Shale, the ultra-deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the frigid Arctic, and the tight oil reserves that underlie South and West Texas and western North Dakota.

They require new techniques that are extraordinarily risky and expensive, and so the companies have turned their venture dollars away from “clean” technology and toward innovations in drilling, subterranean mapping and hydraulic fracturing.

The supermajors were “caught quite unaware of the potential of shale,” said Chirag Rathi, an energy analyst at Frost & Sullivan. A flood of shale gas has upended America’s fuel markets in recent years, and it took a lot of investment to get there. “All those trends kind of meant that it was important to focus on the core again,” Rathi said.

Meanwhile, the big oil firms are finding themselves less welcome at the foreign oil fields that have been mainstays for decades. National oil companies like Aramco of Saudi Arabia and Petronas of Malaysia are renegotiating old contracts and exerting more control over their turf, Rathi added.

The Arctic Circle provides just one example of the difficulties. Shell has so far spent $6 billion on setting up drilling rigs in the Chukchi Sea between Alaska and Russia but has been beleaguered with safety and equipment problems (EnergyWire, July 18). Two weeks ago, Exxon announced it would scuttle plans to drill in Russia’s Kara Sea because of Western sanctions against Russia related to its aggressions in Ukraine.

Shell is in trouble with investors for stagnant production figures and rising exploration and development costs that are eating away at company revenues. In response, the company is in the midst of a major restructuring effort, vacating much of the U.S. shale oil business and focusing investments instead on offshore exploration and production and other projects that could help the company make major gains in its global oil and gas output figures.

Meanwhile, as venture dollars have become more precious, those earlier investments in renewable energy projects often struggled or floundered.

KiOR Inc., a once-promising maker of biofuel from wood chips and switchgrass, is in severe financial trouble. In general, biofuels have labored under uncertainly about how much the federal government will mandate to be blended into fuels. The renewable energy production tax credit expired at the end of 2013, depressing the profits of all future wind farms.

Since the tax credit expired, “there wasn’t much meat in the market,” Rathi said.

“I have this much money to spend,” said Daniel Choi, an energy analyst at Lux Research. “Am I going to use it to buy new plots of land, to develop this plot of land, or will I allot it to investing in a new renewable energy company?”

Investments in wind and solar shine, then fade

Remember a few years ago, when BP said it stood for “Beyond Petroleum” and Chevron’s ads declared, “It’s time oil companies get behind the development of renewable energy”?

A survey of the oil majors’ holdings reveals that the investments that gave those claims a ring of truth are now mostly stalled or sold. What momentum exists is near the oil majors’ core competencies: biofuels, geothermal and solar projects that make fossil fuel extraction more efficient.

Shell and BP still have significant holdings in wind but seem to hold them at arm’s length.

Shell WindEnergy Inc. pulled out of a major project in California two years ago but still operates eight U.S. wind farms that comprise 720 wind turbines, said Shell spokesman Ray Fisher. The corporate parent, Royal Dutch Shell, maintains a small wind energy branch, though its future is only vaguely defined. Investors are watching for signs that Shell may move out of the wind business in the coming years.

BP invested $3 billion in wind farms starting in 2005, eventually operating 16 of them in nine states, producing 2,600 megawatts of power. In 2013, as the company struggled to pay for the damage from its Gulf of Mexico oil spill, it was determined to sell them. Then, a few months later, it decided to hold onto wind after all because no one offered a good buying price.

“Despite receiving a number of bids, the company determined that it was not the right time to sell the business,” said Jason Ryan, a BP spokesman.

Investments in solar photovoltaics (PV), where the oil majors were once formidable, have vanished.

BP at one point boasted of having the most efficient thin-film solar panels in the world, and in 2001 hatched a plan to put solar on all new BP service stations. In 2009, it arranged to build solar plants on the roofs of Wal-Mart stores in California (ClimateWire, April 23, 2009). But BP shut down these operations in 2011.

“The continuing global economic challenges have significantly impacted the solar industry, making it difficult to sustain long term returns for the company, despite our best efforts,” BP said in an internal letter to staff.

Shell in 2002 bought a German solar company (from Siemens AG), established it as one of the leaders in the then-tiny U.S. solar market, and then sold it back to the Germans (to SolarWorld AG) in 2006.

Chevron’s exit has been the most recent. In the wake of its divestments this year, Chevron’s holdings are limited to a few solar photovoltaic projects in California and a small wind farm in Wyoming. It says it is experimenting in solar technology.

The one oil company that maintains a vital interest in solar panels is Total SA, the French petroleum giant. In 2011, it spent almost $1.4 billion to buy a controlling interest in SunPower Corp., one of the U.S.’s leading solar panel makers, which it runs as a semi-independent arm.

Clean, as long as it’s core

For the oil industry’s other big players, though, the remaining oomph in solar power is in what is called “enhanced oil recovery.” Mirrors are positioned to bounce sunbeams to a central point, where a fluid is superheated to create steam. The steam, in turn, is injected in the ground to increase the productivity of an existing oil well.

Chevron has a demonstration enhanced oil recovery plant in Coalinga, Calif., that has 7,600 mirrors, while Shell has allied with GlassPoint Solar Inc. on a project in Oman.

In geothermal power, which uses hot subterranean rocks to create steam that makes electricity, Chevron operates sizable plants in the Philippines and in Indonesia.

One vein that almost all the supermajors still pursue is biofuels, though often on a smaller scale than a few years ago, according to Bloomberg.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil Corp. both dabble in advanced biofuels research. By comparison, Shell and BP are more bullish. Shell has a deep history with biofuels that spans about three decades, said Shell’s Fisher, adding that Shell is one of the world’s largest distributors of biofuels and that capacity expansions are ongoing. BP’s green-fuels scope includes the largest bioethanol plant in the United Kingdom, operated with DuPont, and three mills in Brazil that help convert sugar cane into ethanol. In 2012, BP scrapped plans for a $300 million cellulosic ethanol refinery in Florida.

One name that rarely enters the conversation, when it comes to renewables, is Exxon Mobil.

America’s second-largest company by gross revenue showed relatively little enthusiasm for renewable energy projects and ventures in the past, even as interest in renewables grew prominently in 2008 and 2009, and the firm largely maintains this attitude today.

Exxon Mobil officials have also expressed deep skepticism of electric cars at past events, arguing that it was unlikely that advanced batteries would ever match the energy density that is contained in liquid petroleum fuels.

Exxon Mobil does, however, support renewable energy research indirectly, as a sponsor of the Global Climate and Energy Project, a research initiative at Stanford University that exists to “conduct fundamental research on technologies that will permit the development of global energy systems with significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions,” according to the GCEP website.

Chevron’s 2 flirtations with solar

When it comes to understanding why the big oil companies can’t seem to embrace clean energy, the experience of Robert Redlinger proves instructive.

Redlinger began at Chevron in 2003, when it bought the energy contracting company he worked for, Viron Energy Services. Redlinger headed up Viron’s distributed solar business and became a leader in Chevron’s clean energy subsidiary, Chevron Energy Services. By the mid-2000s, Chevron Energy Services had become the second-biggest solar integrator in California. It built ground-mount systems and solar canopies, and on rooftops.

But by 2007, Redlinger said in an interview, it was becoming clear to him that solar panels were becoming a commodity and that Chevron would make tiny profits.

So at his prodding, Chevron expanded into building utility-scale plants. Redlinger headed the team that secured attractive sites for solar farms. For a brief time, it appeared that a major oil company would have been in a leading position in what is now one of the world’s top utility-scale markets for solar.

Along with the budding projects came the need for letters of credit and deposits to create interconnections to the grid. It was when it began to require millions of dollars of capital investment that Redlinger’s bosses started having second thoughts. “In fact, my superiors at Chevron Energy Solutions never even took it to the corporation and never asked for the funds because they knew it would be rejected,” Redlinger said in an email.

By 2009, Chevron had sold its solar assets, and Redlinger left the company in 2010.

“There was always a disconnect,” Redlinger said of Chevron’s relationship with solar. “It never really had the buy-in of the corporation. It was always a bottom-up effort of the staff rather than a top-down strategy directed from above.”

Around 2012, after Redlinger’s departure, Chevron Energy Solutions again got an infusion of cash from its parent to pursue big geothermal and solar projects. And again, last month, the company got cold feet.

Do oil companies understand electrons?

Many aspects of the electricity business were unfamiliar and uncomfortable to an oil executive, Redlinger said.

One was debt. Like most equipment-intensive industries, the solar industry incurs lots of debt to build its projects. But Chevron’s leaders were allergic to incurring debt and employing other financing structures commonly used to build electric infrastructure. The oil industry, with its huge cash reserves and extraordinary appetite for risk, is used to paying costs from its own pocket. One loan on an oil field gone bad can bankrupt an entire company.

As a result, Redlinger said, he could never make the case that a solar project, despite its lower returns, in the end could be as profitable as an oil project if you structured it differently.

Furthermore, Chevron executives bristled at the relationship with a solar plant’s primary customer — the electric utility.

The oil companies are used to high risk and high reward. The utilities offered low risk, low reward — and an inferior bargaining position. Utilities are monopolies, and a monopoly defines the terms. Chevron does tango with the utilities as the operator of some big cogeneration electric stations. But when it came to building solar plants, Chevron was distressed by its lower status.

“The utility business is not a good one,” Redlinger said, “unless you’re a utility.”

Redlinger addressed a question that occurs to many when they think of the oil companies and renewable energy. The oil majors are better than anyone at energy. Solar, wind and geothermal power are all energy. So what’s the problem?

The problem, Redlinger said, is that the oil companies know molecules, and solar isn’t about molecules. It’s about electrons.

What the oil companies do, Redlinger said, is one part exploration — geology, geophysics, computer simulation of oil reserves, drilling and heavy earthwork. The other part is chemical engineering, massaging chemical bonds with treatment and heat to convert crude into usable fuels like diesel and gasoline.

What solar and other electricity-generation business do, by contrast, is electronics engineering and manufacturing. “The electrons business is just not core to what the oil majors do,” Redlinger said.

“It’s not that the oil companies can’t get good at it,” he said. “They’re very, very talented and have very good personnel. The question they have to ask themselves is why. If you have a business model that is profitable, and will remain profitable for 20 or 30 years, and that takes all your resources to remain profitable, why change it?”

Are the Liberals Finally Waking Up, in Britain? Green taxes are Absurd!

Green taxes DO harm the British economy and let other countries carry on polluting, Vince Cable admits

  • Business Secretary said levies on energy were undermining British exports
  • He said Lib Dems had to recognise green tax meant pollution was ‘exported’
  • Remarks will be seized on by the Tories who have warned of green tax harm

Vince Cable has launched an astonishing broadside against the party’s green agenda, saying that it imposes too high a cost on industry.

The Business Secretary said industries with high energy costs such as steel, are struggling against their international competitors because of soaring electricity costs.

Chancellor George Osborne has given £250million compensation to ‘energy intensive’ industries, but Mr Cable admitted this ‘doesn’t go the whole hog’.

It is a surprise admission from a Liberal Democrat, because the party is passionate about renewable energy which is funded by levies on households and businesses.

Vince Cable today warned Lib Dems not to overlook the fact that pollution could simply be 'exported' abroad if green taxes put British companies out of business

Vince Cable today warned Lib Dems not to overlook the fact that pollution could simply be ‘exported’ abroad if green taxes put British companies out of business

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2781433/Green-taxes-DO-harm-British-economy-let-countries-carry-polluting-Vince-Cable-admits.html#ixzz3FNBNbfWM
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Carbon Taxes are a Economy-Crippling Scam! Get rid of them!

GWPF Calls On Government To Suspend Fourth Carbon Budget

The_GWPF_logoPress Release 06/10/14
UK Business Minister Finally Admits Carbon Taxes Are Damaging British Businesses
London, 6 October: The Global Warming Policy Forum has welcomed Vince Cable’s belated admission that the government’s climate policy is damaging British businesses.

Business secretary Vince Cable yesterday warned that Britain’s unilateral carbon tax is hampering UK businesses who are losing competitiveness to their counterparts abroad.

Of course it is not just the Carbon Floor Price that is driving up the cost of energy, but so are the ever rising subsidies for green energy which will amount to £8 billion p.a. by 2020.

Mr Cable is right to highlight the growing risk to British businesses that “are struggling against international competition because of the cost of energy.”
“At a time when most major economies are turning to cheap and abundant fossil fuels, Britain alone seems prepared to risk its economic competitiveness by adopting policies that are making energy ever more expensive,” said Dr Benny Peiser, the GWPF’s director.
“Given the manifest reluctance of major economies to follow Britain’s unilateral policy, the government should now suspend the fourth carbon budget and all post-2020 climate targets,” he added.

Wind Poised to Be Blown Out of Australia? Let’s hope so!

Is this the death of Australia’s renewable energy industry?

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The Australian government – and ministers Greg Hunt and Ian Macfarlane in particular, like to tell everyone how much they support renewable energy. But they seem to be doing their level best to trash the industry in Australia.

Key data released late last week underlines the disastrous state of the large-scale renewable sector: for all intents and purposes, it doesn’t exist.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance data shows that Australia is on track to record its lowest level of asset financing for large-scale renewables since 2002 – as just $193 million was committed in the third quarter of the year. From ranking No 11, in the world in 2013, Australia has fallen behind Algeria and even Myanmar.

bnef investment

Australia, which should be one of the world’s leaders in the industry, is seeing its industry collapse. The three biggest Australian investors in renewable energy are in deep trouble.

Industry Funds Management is being forced to write down the value of Pacific Hydro, the largest specialised investor in renewables in the country, by $685 million, according to the Australian Financial Review. This from a business that was to have been floated a year or so ago with a value of more than $2 billion.

Infigen Energy, the largest listed investor in renewables, has said it is facing massive writedowns, and potentially taking dramatic action to protect shareholder funds. It has brought Australian investments to a halt. So has Silex Systems, which has effectively abandoned the solar industry.

International investors have also made clear that their investment in Australia will end soon un less policy stability is restored. These include First Solar, Chinese wind turbine leader Goldwind, and numerous others. The US-based Recurrent Energy has already packed its bags, Spanish based FRV has said its $1.5 billion pipeline is at risk.

The reason for this? Despite the protestations of the Abbott government, it is the uncertainty they have created. Each of the private companies has cited uncertainty about the RET, a situation that Hunt and Macfarlane know only too well because they kept complaining about it in opposition when the RET legislation was delayed in 2009 and 2010.

IFM CEO Brett Hinbury said the two biggest factors affecting the company was the fall in energy demand – and the uncertainty around the current laws.

As BNEF explains:

“The severe downturn in investment – and total freeze in private investment – has been caused by the Abbott government’s review of the Renewable Energy Target,” it writes.

“Its controversial review panel recommended scrapping the target or radically diminishing it in August, but the government is yet to announce its position and faces blockage in the Senate to changes.

“Private investment is likely to remain frozen until the government’s position is clarified, which is expected in the coming months. However the hiatus in investment will continue for several years if the recommendations of the review panel are not rejected.”

Of course, it makes an absolute nonsense of the claims by Macfarlane and Hunt that the government supports the industry. They understand full well the impact of their decision to appoint a group of climate science deniers and fossil fuel lobbyists to “review” the RET under the tutelage of Dick Warburton, and of comments by Treasurer Joe Hockey that he finds wind turbines “absolutely offensive” and from Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who complains about cost impact.

This is despite the findings of  the Warburton review that the target could be met, and would deliver cost savings to consumers. Still, it recommended the RET be stopped in its tracks or halted, for fear of a “transfer of wealth” from fossil fuel generators to consumers.

The irony is that even the paltry $193 of new finance in the third quarter came from initiatives put in place by the previous Labor government, and by institutions that the Abbott government wants to shut down.

A total of 7 projects have been financed since the start of the calendar year – all are the subject of government funding through the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, Clean Energy Finance Corporation or state governments. None were backed by non-government lenders or investors.

In the first two quarters of the year, there was just $45 million of financing.

This contrasts with the continuing surge in rooftop solar – mostly for the purposes of self consumption – and the growing boom in renewables investment across the world.

Globally, clean energy investment in the first three quarters of this year was 16 per cent ahead of the same period of 2013, at $175.1billion.

The highlight of the third quarter was a leap in Chinese solar investment to a new record of $12.2 billion. China is building a large number of utility-scale photovoltaic projects linked to its main transmission grid.

In Japan, investment grew 17 per cen to $8.6 billion, with solar again the dominant renewable energy source. Other countries showing a bounce in investment in the latest quarter were Canada, France and India, while there were significant projects financed in a number of new markets, including Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board at BNEF said the figures were heartening, but still not enough to herald the “rapid transformation of the power systems” that is required. That would require investment of $200 billion and $300 billion a year.

The third quarter figures showed that global investment in wind farms, solar parks and geothermal plants reached $33.3 billion, a slight rise on year earlier figures, while investment in small-scale projects such as rooftop solar was $18.3 billion, up nearly a third from a year earlier.

Of course, there is a way that Hunt and Macfarlane can deliver on their claim that they really do want the best for the Australian renewable energy industry. That is to quickly reach a deal with the Labor Party and the industry on the way forward.

The Labor Party has indicated it may be prepared to defer the target to 2022, the Clean Energy Council has indicated it could accept an exemption for the aluminium industry. All the Coalition government has to do is to drop the ideological nonsense from the Warburton Review, and accept that Australia has to follow the rest of the world and put in place a rapid de-carbonisation of its electricity industry.

Unaffordable Electricity Prices, Scaring Away Manufacturing Jobs!

Ontario electricity policies hamper economic growth: Fraser Institute

In May 2014, the Fraser Institute, based in British Columbia, published a report authored by Professor Ross McKitrick and PhD candidate Elmira Aliakbari of the University of Guelph. The report, Energy Abundance and Economic Growth, endeavoured to answer an important question in economic research: does economic growth cause an increase in energy consumption or does an increase in energy availability cause an increase in economic activity, or both?

The question has important implications for government policy. Suppose GDP (i.e., national income) growth causes increased energy consumption, but is not dependent on it. In this view, energy consumption is like a luxury good (like jewelry), the consumption of which arises from increased wealth. If policy makers wanted to, they could restrict energy consumption without impinging on future economic and employment growth. The alternative view is that energy is a limiting factor (or essential input) to growth. In that framework, if energy consumption is constrained by policy, future growth will also be constrained, raising the economic costs of such policies. If both directions of causality exist (i.e., if economic growth causes increases in energy consumption and increases in the availability, and use of energy causes economic growth), it still implies that restrictions on energy availability or increases in energy prices will have negative effects on future growth.

The main contribution of the report, in terms of economic theory, is that it shows how new statistical methods have been developed that allow for investigation of whether the relationships between economic growth and growth in energy use are simply correlated or are causal in nature. The theoretical and methodological discussion in the report is quite complex, even for a trained economist, which is probably why the report received very little public attention. The clear conclusion of the analysis, however, is that growth and energy either jointly influence each other, or that the influence is one-way from energy to GDP. Further, of all the OECD countries studied, Canada shows the most consistent evidence on this, in that studies under a variety of methods and time periods have regularly found evidence that energy is a limiting factor in Canadian economic growth.

In other words, real per-capita income in Canada is definitely constrained by policies that restrict energy availability and/or increase energy costs, and growth in energy abundance leads to growth in Canadian GDP per capita.

The report concludes with a reference to Ontario’s electricity policies.

“These considerations are important to keep in mind as policymakers consider initiatives (especially related to renewable energy mandates, biofuels requirements, and so forth) that explicitly limit energy availability. Jurisdictions such as Ontario have argued that such policies are consistent with their overall strategy to promote economic growth. In other words, they assert that forcing investment in wind and solar generation systems – while making electricity more expensive overall – will contribute to macro-economic growth. The evidence points in the opposite direction. Policies that engineer energy scarcity are likely to lead to negative effects on future GDP growth.”

One can read the entire Fraser Institute report at:

http://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedFiles/fraser-ca/Content/research-news/research/publications/energy-abundance-and-economic-growth.pdf

Robert Lyman

Ottawa

Global Warming Alarmists Have an Agenda. Science Has NO Consensus!

The Corruption of Science

The late Dr. Michael Crichton in a speech at the California Institute of Technology made the following observation:

“I want to …talk about … the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. …

“Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results … .

“There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. … .”  … Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E = mc². Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way.”

 In recent decades, the term consensus science has come to be associated with climate change/global warming.  The appeal to a consensus has been used to avoid honest and open debate about the extent of human influence on the climate system.  Climate change has become the poster child for the widely documented corruption in many fields of science resulting from competition for funding, tying funding to specific policy outcomes, and the increasing pressure to publish or perish.

Norman Rogers in the May 14 issue of the American Thinker began his article citing President Eisenhower’s farewell address warning that a “scientific-technological elite” dependent on government money would exert undue influence on government policy”. Scientific advice to policy makers has become heavily influenced by political agendas and rewards to organizations and scientists that provide the necessary scientific support for political objectives.  In the case of climate change, the influence can be traced back to the White House and Al Gore.

Climate change is the primary example of how science can be perverted by money and politics.  Today there is an international climate establishment that is supported annually by billions of dollars to advance a war on fossil energy, promote an agenda of fear, and undermine capitalism’s market driven system.  Anyone who does not subscribe to the climate orthodoxy is subjected intimidation and not to subtle threats to their careers.  Some climate advocates have called so called skeptics war criminals who should be jailed, the equivalent of holocaust deniers, flat earthers, and industry pawns.

The crime of these skeptics is to challenge the asserted consensus that human activities involving fossil energy and economic development are threatening the planet.  Advocates point to computer model results that project dramatic increases in global temperatures that will lead to extreme climate events—more intense hurricanes, extended droughts, and sea level rises that threaten coastal cities for example.

To increase their power and influence, the climate establishment has adopted the mantra that the “science is settled” and 97% of scientists agree that human activities are the primary cause of climate change over the past 50 plus years.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not claim that the science is settled.  Its latest report has a chart that shows level of understanding about major climate forcing processes.  Many are shown as low or medium levels of understanding.  Throughout its report, the IPCC refers to topics reflecting great uncertainty—natural variability, cloud formation, climate sensitivity, for example. The now 18-year pause in warming has so befuddled the establishment that it has come up with 52 different explanations.

In making projections of future global temperatures, the IPCC relies on over 50 models, each of which reflects different assumptions about how the climate system functions.  None of the models has been able to project actual temperatures or the pause. And, the only way these models can “back cast” past temperatures is by a process of adjustments. If climate science was settled, 50 plus models would be unnecessary and they would be highly accurate.

Finally, there is the claim that 97% of climate scientists agree that climate change is real and man-made. It is a bogus claim based on a paper by John Cook of the University of Queensland’s Climate Change Institute.  Reviews of Cook’s work demonstrate that is a case of cooking the books.  One of those critiques was by Richard Tol, a professor at the University of Sussex and an IPCC lead author, while the most detailed and quantitative was by Steve McIntyre—Climate Audit website.  Other critiques have included articles in the American Thinker, Debunking the 97% Consensus on Global Warming, February 4, 2014, The New American, Global Warming “Consensus: Cooking the Books, May 21, 2013, and a blog The Collapsing Consensus by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley.

The Cook paper is a classic example of what Darrell Huff wrote about in his book, How to Lie With Statistics.  The fact that the climate change establishment creates such misleading information to manipulate opinion is clear evidence that its scientific foundation doesn’t exist.  It is also evidence of desperation because the climate is not conforming to its orthodoxy of dread.

Science has provided the foundation for tremendous advances in technology, innovation that have contributed to advances in  human health and wealth.  Its corruption threatens to undermine the potential future advances that will benefit the generations of tomorrow.

We Should have Seen It All Along…..It’s the Bat’s Fault…..

“Confused Bats” to Blame for “Unprecedented” Wind Farm Bat Slaughter

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Wind farms are certified bird and bat slaughterhouses, where millions are clobbered, sliced and diced every year (see our post here).

Now, apparently, it’s turned out to be all the bats’ fault.

If only they’d undergone turbine recognition and awareness training they wouldn’t be belted to kingdom come, night after bloody night.

You see, bats (or at least the dimmest of them) apparently can’t tell the difference between trees (a source of food and shelter) and giant turbines (a guaranteed pathway to the promised land).

Maybe, over time, as Darwin’s rules about survival of the fittest and natural selection start to bite, the eradication of bats too stupid to know the difference between friendly oaks and mechanical bat thrashers will lead to a bat “super race” – not only capable of spotting certain death, but equipped with superlative “blade-dodging” flying powers and indestructible lungs.

In the meantime, however, they’ll continue to cop a battering. Here’s The Telegraph on the “unprecedented” wind farm bat slaughter.

Bats lured to deaths at wind farms ‘because they think turbines are trees’
The Telegraph
Emily Gosden
29 September 2014

Flashing red lights may be needed to prevent bats making potentially-fatal mistake, scientists say

Bats may be lured to their deaths at wind farms because they think turbines are trees in which they can find shelter, food and sex, according to new research.

The creatures fly towards slow-moving turbines, only to be killed when gusts of wind spin the blades, scientists investigating “unprecedented” numbers of bat deaths at wind farms suggested.

Flashing red lights may need to be installed at wind farms to help prevent the animals making the potentially-fatal mistake, they said.

Bats were “attracted to and actively approach” turbines when they were either stationary or moving only very slowly, according to the researchers from the United States Geological Survey.

About 600,000 bats are estimated to have been killed by wind farms in the US in 2012.

“Bats may not have the cognitive ability to differentiate wind turbines or other tree-like structures from real trees either at a distance or at close range,” the researchers said.

“The simplest explanation for bats closely approaching turbines may be that they are seeking places to roost in what they perceive as trees while migrating.”

The scientists suggested that the central pole of the wind turbine resembled a tree trunk, while blades resembled branches.

These misleading visual signals – “such as similar silhouettes against the night sky” – were compounded by similar airflow patterns generated by the stationary turbines.

Bats were less likely to approach turbines when the blades were spinning quickly, potentially because this created turbulence, according to the scientists.

“Our observations that tree bats show a tendency to closely investigate inert turbines and sometimes linger for minutes to perhaps hours … highlight the plausibility of a scenario in which bats are drawn toward turbines in low winds, but sometimes remain long enough to be put at risk when wind picks up and blades reach higher speeds,” they said.

The scientists suggested one remedy would be to alter the appearance of wind farms, for example by installing lights on the turbines, which might “might make some bats less likely to mistake them for trees”.

They cited the example of one wind farm in Texas where “fewer fatalities of eastern red bats were found under turbines with flashing red aviation lights”.

They suggested that wind farm operators should also only allow the turbines to spin when the wind speeds were consistently high, in order “to prevent gusts from intermittently pushing blades to lethal speed during low-wind periods”.

In a paper, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday, the researchers said that as well as seeking shelter, bats may also be lured toward turbines with the expectation of finding “social opportunities or food”.

Bats may head toward what they think are trees in search of a mate, especially as some species of bat carrying out mating displays at trees. The highest death rates from bats at wind farms were documented around the start of the mating season.

The bats may also be drawn toward the tree-like machines with the expectation of finding insects. The researchers said it was not clear whether the bats actually found insects when they arrived at the turbines – as some previous theories have suggested – but that the animals “may be acting upon the expectation of resources rather than the actual presence of resources”.

Other theories have suggested that bats may suffer bends-like symptoms from air pressure changes caused by the turbines, resulting in their internal organs exploding.
The Telegraph

bat

Despite the Pause In Global Warming, Politicians Still Clinging To the Climate Money Grab!

Ben Santer’s 17 year itch, revisited – he and a whole stable of climate scientists have egg on their faces

Now that “the pause” has come of age, and has exceeded 18 years, it is time to revisit a post a made back in November 2011.

Ben Santer’s 17 year itch

Bill Illis reminded me in comments of this spectacular failure of peer reviewed climate science:

Let’s remember several years ago when all the heavy-weights of climate science produced a paper that said the lower troposphere pause had to be at least 17 years long before a clear signal that human-made CO2 warming theories should start to be questioned.

Carl Mears was the second author on that paper along Ben Santer (lead) [and Tom Wigley, Susan Solomon, Tom Karl, Gerald Meehl, Peter Stott, Peter Thorne, Frank Wentz].

Well, that time has now been exceeded and they all have egg on their face.

http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-010-476.pdf

Alhough, if you read Carl Mears article carefully, he is starting the discussion that maybe the theories need to be revised. His use of the d’word may be needed just to keep him in the club and not being shown the door by his other compatriots who accept no questioning at all.

Santer_17yearsHere’s the current lower troposphere temperature from RSS:

clip_image002.png

Here’s the reminder press release boasting of their discovery. Emphasis mine.

Separating signal and noise in climate warming

LIVERMORE, Calif. — In order to separate human-caused global warming from the “noise” of purely natural climate fluctuations, temperature records must be at least 17 years long, according to climate scientists.

To address criticism of the reliability of thermometer records of surface warming, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists analyzed satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower troposphere (the region of the atmosphere from the surface to roughly five miles above) and saw a clear signal of human-induced warming of the planet.

Satellite measurements of atmospheric temperature are made with microwave radiometers, and are completely independent of surface thermometer measurements. The satellite data indicate that the lower troposphere has warmed by roughly 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit since the beginning of satellite temperature records in 1979. This increase is entirely consistent with the warming of Earth’s surface estimated from thermometer records.

Recently, a number of global warming critics have focused attention on the behavior of Earth’s temperature since 1998. They have argued that there has been little or no warming over the last 10 to 12 years, and that computer models of the climate system are not capable of simulating such short “hiatus periods” when models are run with human-caused changes in greenhouse gases.

“Looking at a single, noisy 10-year period is cherry picking, and does not provide reliable information about the presence or absence of human effects on climate,” said Benjamin Santer, a climate scientist and lead author on an article in the Nov. 17 online edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres).

Many scientific studies have identified a human “fingerprint” in observations of surface and lower tropospheric temperature changes. These detection and attribution studies look at long, multi-decade observational temperature records. Shorter periods generally have small signal to noise ratios, making it difficult to identify an anthropogenic signal with high statistical confidence, Santer said.

“In fingerprinting, we analyze longer, multi-decadal temperature records, and we beat down the large year-to-year temperature variability caused by purely natural phenomena (like El Niños and La Niñas). This makes it easier to identify a slowly-emerging signal arising from gradual, human-caused changes in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases,” Santer said.

The LLNL-led research shows that climate models can and do simulate short, 10- to 12-year “hiatus periods” with minimal warming, even when the models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol particles. They find that tropospheric temperature records must be at least 17 years long to discriminate between internal climate noise and the signal of human-caused changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

“One individual short-term trend doesn’t tell you much about long-term climate change,” Santer said. “A single decade of observational temperature data is inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving human-caused warming signal. In both the satellite observations and in computer models, short, 10-year tropospheric temperature trends are strongly influenced by the large noise of year-to-year climate variability.”

The research team is made up of Santer and Livermore colleagues Charles Doutriaux, Peter Caldwell, Peter Gleckler, Detelina Ivanova, and Karl Taylor, and includes collaborators from Remote Sensing Systems, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of Colorado, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.K. Meteorology Office Hadley Centre, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

###

Source: http://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2011/Nov/NR-11-11-03.html


The lower troposphere temperature has been flat now for 18 years on one dataset, RSS. No human effects can be seen.  What say you Dr. Santer?

  1. Ignore your own folly?
  2. Say your paper was mistaken and publish a new goalpost mover paper saying that we really need 30 years?
  3. Or, will you simply admit that the posited warming isn’t happening?

I’m guessing you’ll go with #2.

Wind is Novelty Energy, Not Feasible for Everyday Use….

‘Wind energy has come to a limit’: Experts debate on the best way to combat climate change

BRITAIN should stop investing in wind farms as they are no longer an efficient source of energy, a leading global warming expert has warned.

Published: Fri, October 3, 2014

Daily Express debate with Benny PeiserDr Benny Peiser said that wind turbines are no longer effective [EXPRESS/GETTY]

Turbines have been hailed as a clean, alternative fuel supply but the UK should not expect them to play a major part in how we try to solve climate change, claimed a leading scientist.

In 2009, the UK Budget included meant that the budger for wind power in the UK could amount to £525million between 2011 and the end of this year.

In the latest debate hosted by the Daily Express, two experts maintain mankind is not doomed, despite some scientists pointing to melting ice caps, rising sea levels and erratic weather.

But they debate the extent to which we are to blame for the current situation and question whether new kinds of energy are the solution.

Dr Benny Peiser, Director of The Global Warming Policy Forum, said wind turbines have reached the limit of their effectiveness and money should be spent elsewhere.

“I’m all in favour of alternative energy,” he insisted. “[But] I’m against picking winners and throwing money at technologies that might not have a future.

“Wind energy I think has come to a limit to how efficient can get.

“I think solar has a brighter future.”

Wind energy I think has come to a limit to how efficient can get

Dr Benny Peiser

However Bob Ward, Policy and Communications Directory at The Grantham Research Institute, urged the Government to continue investing in new “cleaner” means of fuel, such as wind farms.

Arguing climate change could not be explained by natural phenomena alone, he said mankind had clearly played a part and suggested we need to completely re-think the way that we fuel our planet.

Fossil fuels, he argues, are becoming an outdated means of energy – meaning that we now face pressure to find new sources of energy.

“It’s far better to invest in modern, clean form of energy than looking backward and saying we must continue burning all these old, polluting fossil fuels,” he said.

“Progress is about new, clean energy.”

The pair both acknowledged that even if the UK changes tack on energy, emerging powers like China and India burn massive amounts of dirty fuel and need to change.

Dr Peiser said China was building one new coal-powered plant per week and only ten per cent of its energy needs by 2030 would be met by a renewable source.

However Mr Ward said China did take the situation very seriously because poorer countries are more at risk from the adverse effects of global warming. He added it was easier to put solar power in villages than to build large plants.

Express debate with Bob Wardurged the Government to continue investing in new ‘cleaner’ means of fuel [EXPRESS]

Scientific research shows that the Earth’s surface temperature first rose in the last half of the 20th century, but several scientists say the overall temperature has not actually risen for 18 years.

Dr Peiser admits that tackling climate change is a tricky problem, because no-one really knows when, if ever, the Earth’s temperature will rise again – and we don’t know what the climate was like thousands of years ago.

“We don’t know if climate change in the next 50 or 100 years will be a big problem, a moderate problem or a small problem,” admits Dr Peiser.

“We’re not sure how much warming we will see.”

Mr Ward agreed there was no easy answer but said the risks of climate change were “clearly huge.”

He added: “We can do this and it’s really up to us. This is a decision not just for ourselves but for our children and our grandchildren.

The debate on global warming comes just weeks after thousands of people gathered around the world to protest against climate change at the People’s Climate March.

It is believed that over 40,000 people attended the march in London, while over 300,000 people protested in New York.

This coincided with the start of the UN Climate Change Summit where US President Barack Obama said it was an issue “that will define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other”.

All over the World….Where there are Windweasels, there is Corruption!

Britain’s Green Energy Fiasco Deepens

From The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser

Expensive Green Energy A ‘Bad Gamble’ As Gas Price Drops

Families face paying up to £40 extra each year for wind and solar farms to meet climate change targets after the government revised its energy price forecasts. The subsidy required for each unit of renewable electricity will rise after the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) conceded that gas was much cheaper than it had predicted. A glut of gas on the world market means gas-fired power stations have become cheaper to run, making wind and solar farms comparatively even more expensive. –Tim Webb & Ben Webster, The Times, 3 October 2014

green_money_windmills

Peter Atherton, energy analyst at Liberum Capital, said that green energy was “always a hell of a gamble and now looks like an increasingly bad gamble”. “Year after year [energy secretary] Ed Davey has been banging on that one of the core reasons [for backing green energy] is to protect ourselves against inevitably high and volatile fossil fuel prices. Now their own forecasts are saying fossil fuel prices are going to be very affordable,” he said. –Emily Gosden, The Daily Telegraph, 3 October 2014

The impact of rising household energy bills will be greatly reduced by climate change policies which could save consumers around £166 by 2020, according to the energy and climate secretary, Ed Davey. “Global gas price hikes are squeezing households. They are beyond any government’s control. The analysis shows that our strategy of shifting to alternatives like renewables and of being smarter with how we use energy is helping those who need it most to save money on their bills,” he said. –John Vidal, The Guardian, 27 March 2013

In a bizarre statement, energy and climate change secretary Chris Huhne told the House of Commons that his [green energy] policies mean consumers will actually be better off. Dr Benny Peiser, of the Global Warming Foundation, said Mr Huhne’s reassurances were ‘political spin’. Government policy is based on an assumption that gas prices will continue to rise, but Dr Peiser said the price could fall. He said: ‘Prices are likely to come down very significantly.’ –Sean Poulter, Daily Mail 24 November 2011

By 2020, British Energy & Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne routinely insists, families and businesses in the United Kingdom will be better off – despite his plan to shift the country towards expensive renewable energy. His claim is based on the assumption that the price of fossil fuels can only go up as we “run out” of oil and gas supplies. As a result, energy prices will inevitably shoot into the stratosphere, making very costly renewables competitive in the future. I am afraid Huhne’s assumptions are misguided. In reality, we are in the middle of a global natural gas revolution. Indeed, gas prices have dropped by half in the United States in the last two years as a result of a glut in cheap shale gas. –Benny Peiser, Public Service Europe, 19 January 2012

As we look at UK energy policy now, DECC has had the country make a massive financial gamble on the back of a prediction that was wholly unfounded and which has been obviously so for many years. We now learn that DECC has also distributed this astonishing wave of public money in a manner that can only be described as monstrously incompetent, and which many will assume to be monstrously corrupt.
Any reasonable person would close down DECC right now and lay off all the environmentalists who staff it. –Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, 3 October 2014

Global warming is a ‘public health emergency’ that will cause thousands of deaths worldwide, a leading medical journal warns. The BMJ’s editor Dr Fiona Godlee calls on the World Health Organisation to declare the issue a public health emergency – putting it on a par with the current ebola outbreak in West Africa. Dr Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Forum accused the BMJ report of being needlessly alarmist. ‘The World Health Organisation would become a global laughing stock if they were to follow the ridiculously over-the-top demands of a green alarmist editor. There is a real disconnect between what they are saying and the reality.’ –Sophie Borland and Ben Spencer, Daily Mail, 2 October 2014

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