Aussie Senator John Madigan….Hero of Wind Turbine Victims!

From Hansard: Windfarms

Senator MADIGAN (Victoria) (23:20): I rise to speak tonight on the privilege of this parliament to operate without fear or favour. Members and senators have the right to undertake their duties freely to represent their constituents—it is the reason we are here. Any attempt to gag a senator or member of parliament, any attempt to exert influence by means of threat or intimidation is a breach of parliamentary privilege. This could incur the most serious penalties. Tonight I will speak of such an attempt by a high-profile Australian academic. This academic has a track record of making fun of people in regional and rural communities who are sick. He trades in scuttlebutt. He makes consistent attacks on anyone who makes a complaint against his network of corporate buddies. This academic has become the poster boy for an industry which has a reputation for dishonesty and for bullying.

I have a policy of playing the issue, not the man. Policies should always go before personalities. It is a personal credo, one I have practised all my life and specifically in my professional duties since my election in 2010. But since I have been investigating matters related to wind turbines for almost 10 years now I have recorded a consistent track record of vilification, denigration and attack by those on the other side of this debate. This is an industry that sucks hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies from the public purse. This industrial power generation sector is an industry that masquerades under a false veneer of ‘saving the environment’.

The wind industry is about one thing in this country: it exists to make people rich at the expense of many rural and regional Australians, their lives and their communities. My investigation shows it does not decrease carbon dioxide, it does not reduce power costs, it does not improve the environment. And this academic in question stands shoulder to shoulder with the wind industry companies and their colourful—and I use that term deliberately—executives. He promotes their products. He attacks their critics. He attends their conferences. He rubs shoulders with their henchmen. He is, in the words of the former member for Hume, Alby Schultz—who was a great campaigner on this issue, I might add—devoid of any decency and courage.

But, first, some background. My party, the Democratic Labour Party, has a long tradition of standing up for principle in the face of enormous opposition. My party was born in conflict and forged in sacrifice. No other political party in Australia can boast that its parliamentary founders—51 in total, including 14 ministers and a state Premier—were prepared to sacrifice promising political careers to uphold the belief dedicated to freedom from undue and corrupt influence. The DLP was the first Australian political party to promote the vote for 18-year-olds. We were the first political party to call for equal pay for equal work and equity in education funding. We were the first political party to call for an end to the White Australia policy. And when our veterans returned from Vietnam, bloody but unbowed, DLP parliamentarians marched in their ranks while the rest of Australia turned their backs.

The DLP is a party of principle. We respect the dignity and the sanctity of life. From the womb to the grave, from the primary school to the factory floor, we see every life as unique and having intrinsic value. This is the cornerstone of the DLP; this is the foundation upon which I place every vote. That is why my attention has been turned to the wind industry for almost a decade now, even before my election to the Senate. I have seen firsthand the devastation it has caused communities. I have listened firsthand to the stories of wrecked families’ lives: family farms destroyed and small outback areas torn apart. I have seen the empty homes in Victoria at Waubra, Macarthur, Cape Bridgewater and Leonards Hill. I have listened to country people tell me stories of corporate bullying and deceit, and of corporate fraud in matters of compliance. I have repeatedly called for one thing on this issue: independent Australian research into the health problems that wind farms apparently cause. That is all—independent research. It is a question of justice. It is about getting to the bottom of this issue.

So when I spoke with Alan Jones onto 2GB on 27 March, I made one simple point. I told Mr Jones we need to be careful about people who profess to be experts in this area. For the benefit of the Senate I repeat what I said in that interview:

… when we talk about people, using the title, using a title, such as Professor, let us be clear crystal clear here Alan. Most people in the community assume that when you use the title Professor, that you are trained in the discipline of which you speak. And I ask people, look and check. What is the person making these proclamations about other people’s health? What is the discipline they are trained in of which they speak? Because most people in the public assume when you speak of an issue of health, that you are trained in the discipline of which you speak, and there are people making pronouncements and denigrating people who are not trained in human health.

I stand by this statement. It is fair and reasonable to encourage people to look behind the blatant campaigning done by people like Professor Chapman of the University of Sydney.

But it is the statement that has prompted him to threaten me, utilising a law firm that was instrumental in the set-up of Hepburn Wind. He has threatened to sue me for libel over this statement unless I pay him $40,000 plus costs. He has threatened to sue me for libel unless I organise an apology on the website of 2GB and an anti-wind farm website called Stop These Things. He has threatened me with contempt of parliament and a breach of parliamentary privilege if I raise these matters in the Senate. This reaction by Professor Chapman is something that my more experienced parliamentary colleagues have labelled a blatant try-on. It is another attempt by the wind industry to silence me, to scare me off and to intimidate me. It is a case of a Sydney university academic firing shots across the bow of the blacksmith from Ballarat. This is something he has done before now, tweeting about my position on this issue, always in the context of my background as a blacksmith—a background, I add, that I am enormously proud of. I remain one of the wind industry’s most stubborn and outspoken critics. I will not be silenced. I will not give up on the injustice inflicted on people who claim to be impacted by living near turbines. I will not stop. My comments to Alan Jones were a series of rhetorical statements or questions about the assumptions members of the public should be entitled to make when somebody professes to be qualified to speak about an issue of public health. In other words, I was asking people to check that so-called experts on this issue are relevantly trained and qualified. It is a reasonable request. Our media and the internet are crawling with self-appointed experts. Daily we operate in a cacophony of opinion presented as fact.

Professor Chapman has been an outspoken critic of those who have dared to question the wind farm orthodoxy. But is Professor Chapman a medical doctor? Is he legally entitled to examine and treat patients? Is he qualified in acoustics or any other aspect of audiology? Is he a sleep specialist? Does he hold any qualifications in bioacoustics or physiology or neuroscience? How many wind farm victims has he interviewed directly? How many wind farm impacted homes has he visited? Professor Chapman claims to receive no payment from the wind industry. How many wind industry conferences, seminars and events has he spoken at? How many wind industry events has he attended? Writing on the Crikey website in November 2011, Professor Chapman lamented how many conferences do not pay speaker’s fees, and, when one conference organiser refused to pay his hotel bill, he withdrew. This is the same Professor Chapman who was photographed at a campaign launch in Melbourne by the Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas. Did Vestas pay your hotel bill and other costs, Professor Chapman? These are reasonable questions—they put in context his actions.

I take this opportunity to draw the attention of the Senate to the discovery of a 2004 PowerPoint presentation by Vestas employee Erik Sloth to the former Australian Wind Energy Association, now the Clean Energy Council. This demonstrated Vestas knew a decade ago that safer buffers are required to protect neighbours from noise. Vestas knew their preconstruction noise models were not accurate. I draw the attention of the Senate to a quote from the presentation that Vestas knew then that ‘noise from wind turbines sometimes annoys people even if the noise is below noise limits.’ This is confirmation that the global wind industry have known for more than a decade that their turbines impact on nearby residents. How can Professor Chapman reconcile his ridicule of the reasons numerous people have been forced to abandon their homes with the knowledge that the company initiating this campaign he attended knew a decade ago there were problems?

As a public health academic, Professor Chapman displays a lack of compassion for people who claim to be suffering debilitating effects from pervasive wind turbine noise. Professor Chapman’s undergraduate qualifications were in sociology. His PhD looked into the relationship between cigarette smoke and advertising. I question his expertise, I question his qualifications and I question his unbridled motivation to promote and support the wind industry at the cost of people’s lives, homes and communities. I question Professor Chapman’s lack of interest in speaking with wind industry victims. Professor Chapman has a record of public denigration of victims. I refer to his tweet in February this year about ‘wind farm wing nuts’.

One of the important things about this fight that is going on across rural Australia is that it is country women who are in the front line. Farmers’ wives are running hard, fighting to save their families, fighting to save their homes, fighting to save their communities. It is often these women who suffer the most denigration. It is a roll call of honour—people like Mary Morris of South Australia; Dr Andja Mitric Andjic in Victoria; Sonya Trist, Joanne Kermond and Melissa Ware at Cape Bridgewater; Colleen Watt in New South Wales; and, of course, the extraordinary Sarah Laurie in South Australia.

One more example: Annie Gardner and her husband, Gus, have lived and worked happily and healthfully for 34 years on their farming property in south-west Victoria. This came to a sudden halt in October 2012 when the first 15 turbines of the Macarthur wind farm began operation. In a recent letter to the AMA Annie said she is now able to get only two or three hours sleep each night in her own home. She writes: ‘At the time of writing this letter, I am suffering terribly from the infrasound emitted by the 140 turbines located far too close to our property. I have a bad headache. I have very strong pains shooting up through the back of my neck and into my head. I have extremely sore and blocked ears and very painful pressure in my nose. I have pressure in my jaws and my teeth. My heart is pounding. I can feel the vibration going through my body through the chair like an electric charge. The infrasound in our bedroom was appalling. I could feel the vibration through the mattress and the pillow like an electric charge through my body. My head felt as if a brick was on it, and the pressure and pain in my nose was extreme.’

Annie Gardner would be what Professor Chapman would call a ‘wind farm wing nut’. Writing on a green movement website earlier this year, Professor Chapman said protesting against wind farms is a fringe activity as if to suggest that the hundreds of people who attended and spoke at anti-wind farm forums I have held across my home state of Victoria and interstate are simply collateral damage. I cannot live with such a utilitarian view. As I said, even putting aside the highly questionable environmental, social and economic benefits of wind farms, every life matters and every life is important. I have sat in people’s homes and kitchens. I know firsthand the suffering they experience from these industrial developments. Professor Chapman’s attempts to gag me are the same as his attempts to silence those who object to the great wind farm scam. It is part of a greater attempt to silence open and transparent debate on this issue. It does no service to academia or to science already under much attack. It does nothing to advance discussion or progress.

Surely the big businesses behind this attempt—the entities who are funding it, like Bleyer Lawyers, who have worked for Hepburn Wind—should remember cases such as McDonald’s and Gunns. For the environmental movement to attempt this shallow legal shooting of a mere messenger is poor judgement in my view. Bullies corporate or otherwise never get far. Surely it is apparent that companies that use the courts to silence opposition lose out in the court of public opinion. To borrow words from the great human rights campaigner Malcolm X:

I’m for truth, no matter who tells it. I’m for justice, no matter who it’s for or against.
If Professor Chapman proceeds with this action, I look forward to having him answer in court those questions I have raised here tonight—questions about his qualifications, his expertise and his links with the wind industry financial or otherwise. I look forward to his cross-examination under oath as equally as I look forward to mine. I say this: his action, if it proceeds, is doomed in a legal setting or elsewhere for one reason; it is not based on the truth.

Hansard June 17, 2014.

Finally….A Climate Change Conference, That is NOT About Fear Mongering!

Global Warming Skeptics!

Learn the Scientific Truth: Humans Are Not Causing a Climate Crisis

President Obama and his army of bureaucrats have picked up where Al Gore left off: Fudging the science and lying about what is really happening to our climate to justify a federal power-grab of our economy.

But you have an opportunity to learn the truth from the leading scientists and policy experts from around the world who question whether “man-made global warming” will be harmful to plants, animals, or human welfare.

Meet the leaders of think tanks and grassroots organizations who are speaking out against global warming alarmism.

Don’t just wonder about global warming … understand it!

Visit the conference website for more information 

_____________________________________________________________

What: The 9th International Conference on Climate Change, preseneted by The Heartland Institute
When: Monday, July 7 – Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Where: Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas (two days before FreedomFest begins)
Cost: $129 for general admission; $99 for students and senior citizens
Register: Click here to register!

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An amazing line-up of speakers!

The Heartland Institute has brought together world-class experts about the science, policy, and communcations aspect of climate change. Presenters include:

 

Walter Cunningham
Apollo 7 Astronaut
Christopher Monckton
Former Policy Advisor
to Margaret Thatcher
John Coleman
Founder, The
Weather Channel
Joe Bastardi
Co-chief forecaster,
WeatherBELL Analytics

 

Dr. Roy Spencer, principal research scientist, the University of Alabama-Huntsville

 

Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore (who is now a fierce critic of his former organization)

 

Patrick Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute

 

Myron Ebell, director of energy and global warming, Competitive Enterprise Institute

 

And many more!

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DON’T MISS THE 
9th  INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

The conference is designed to inform both the scientist and the layman with three tracks: the science, the policy, and the communications.

 

Come learn about the latest data that show natural causes are a bigger driver of climate change than human activity. Come learn about the proper policy actions in light of human activity not causing a climate crisis. And come learn about how to communicate these inconvenient truths to your friends, family, neighbors, and representatives in government.

 

Read testimonials from attendees of previous conferences! Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from the scientists and experts who are fighting every day to stop the ruination of our economy and the control of our lives over the flawed hypothesis of man-caused climate change.

 

Register here today!

 

Or call 312/377-4000 and ask for Ms. McElrath or reach her via email at zmcelrath@heartland.org.

_____________________________________________________________

The Heartland Institute
One South Wacker Drive #2740

Chicago, IL 60606
  312/377-4000 phone *312/377-5000 fax

www.heartland.org

 

Wind Industry will Stop Lying, When Governments Stop Allowing Them To!

When will the Wind Industry Stop Lying?

knotted turbine

With the Australian wind industry in its death throes, the industry and its parasites are lying around the clock in an effort to preserve the greatest rort of all time – as they seek to fend off the inevitable dismantling of the mandatory Renewable Energy Target.

Lies about the number of jobs at risk. Not jobs in the real economy, mind you, but fantasy jobs that would (might) be created in the wind industry if the mandatory RET were left alone. When we say “fantasy jobs” the numbers given are in the order of 18,000 – which is nothing short of utter bunkum (see our post here).

Lies about the impact of wind power on power prices; always starting off with reference to the wholesale market. Last time we looked, Australian households and businesses were paying the retail price – which has gone from being amongst the cheapest in the world to the most expensive, in less than a decade.

Adding to the litany of wind industry lies, is a story that the marginal cost of delivering wind power is zero – which appears to originate with the “wind is free” myth. This, of course, ignores the upfront capital cost of installing turbines, transmission and network gear etc; and it also ignores the very substantial costs of maintaining, repairing and replacing the major components of turbines.

We’ll debunk these and other myths in a moment, in the meantime here’s The Australian dealing with some of the more outrageous costs associated with the mandatory RET.

Wrong call on energy costs
The Australian
Adam Creighton
20 June 2014

EVEN climate-change deniers may shed a tear over our stillborn carbon emissions trading scheme.

The former government’s policy to link Australia’s scheme to Europe’s, due to start next month at a paltry price of €6 a tonne, was an opportunity to enjoy all the self-righteousness of “doing something” about climate change without much of the cost. All along, imposing a carbon trading scheme and using every dollar of the permit proceeds to cut the bottom two rates of income tax would have been the best policy and, sold well, broadly should have kept everyone happy.

Further, in the unlikely event the rest of the world, which emits the remaining 98.7 per cent of global carbon dioxide, ever agrees on a universal cap and trade system, we would have been prepared — emissions trading remains the most efficient way to limit carbon emission.

Alas, we are governed ineptly: the Coalition has expended its climate-change zeal excising the least bad policy and left us with two worse: the renewable energy target, and the nascent Emissions Reduction Fund (the crux of the Coalition’s direct action policy). Plus we are still lumbered with the absurd carbon tax compensation and higher tax rates to boot.

In 2011 the Rudd and Gillard governments ratcheted up fivefold the Howard government’s 2001 token RET, spurring mainly construction of wind farms, especially in South Australia.

The requirement for retailers to buy what by 2020 will equate to about 27 per cent of total electricity from renewable sources has been a boon for wind farms but a drag for everyone else.

The RET is a highly interventionist and prescriptive way to curb Australia’s carbon emissions, costing about $125 a tonne, or five times the cost of the outgoing carbon tax according to Deloitte Access Economics.

Because it mandates a particular set of technologies (mainly wind), it stops use of much cheaper but non-renewable energy sources, such as gas, that are less carbon intensive.

The insidious cost ripple is significant. Last November the Centre for International Economics concluded the RET was already adding between 4 per cent and 5 per cent to the typical household electricity bill.

Another consulting firm, BAE Economics, concluded in 2012 that the RET would reduce Australia’s national income by between 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent and real wages by 2.5 per cent by 2020. Job losses will outweigh job creation (in the renewable sector) by about 4900 by 2020, Deloitte says.

Yet the Clean Energy Council argues the RET will reduce wholesale and perhaps even retail prices too.

This may well occur: renewable energy is characterised by very high upfront costs and zero or close to zero marginal costs. Wind energy, assuming it is sufficiently windy, can compete with gas and coal fire power stations in the wholesale market.

Advocates for renewable energy are seduced by the psychological appeal of zero marginal cost energy.

But that property, however alluring, does not obviate the need for massive set-up costs. Unless the welfare of the present generation is irrelevant compared to those of the future, forcing purchase of renewable energy does not make sense. By definition, if renewable energy were currently able to lower overall costs in energy production it would not need help from government regulation. Investors would be building wind farms regardless.

The government’s RET review, chaired by known climate-change sceptic Dick Warburton and due to report next month or August, will very likely conclude the RET is an inefficient way to abate carbon. But it will likely recommend a freezing of current requirements rather than outright abolition.

This is a shame because arguments about sovereign risk — that, in this case, it is unfair to investors in renewable energy to suddenly drop the policy — are not strong.

If Canberra suddenly nationalised Westpac, that would create sovereign risk. But dropping a policy that investors always knew was highly inefficient and that was introduced against the will of the bulk of Liberal Party members does not. By this definition all government actions — raising taxes, cutting taxes — create sovereign risk and nothing should ever change.

Arguments the RET bolsters Australia’s energy security — by diversifying the range of energy options we have available — are laughable given the rich endowment of mineral resources this ­nation enjoys.

Indeed, owners of black and brown coal power plants should be encouraged to bid for the ERF to help start construction of a commercial-scale nuclear reactor. Such a facility ultimately would contribute massively to carbon abatement and also encourage development of a skilled workforce.

With near 40 per cent of the world’s uranium reserves and a significant quotient of isolated, uninhabitable land in which to store nuclear waste we are perfectly placed to shift towards nuclear energy, which already supplies 15 per cent of the rich world’s power supply.
The Australian

In an otherwise well-crafted piece, unfortunately, Adam Creighton appears to fall for a couple of classic wind industry furphies – of the kind we mentioned above.

The first is that wind power can be produced at or near zero marginal cost.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Marginal cost” relates to the additional cost of delivering the next unit of production (good or service). In general terms, “marginal cost” at each level of production includes any additional costs required to produce the next unit. For marginal cost to be zero, the additional cost of delivering an additional unit must be zero.

Wind farm operating costs are typically in the range of $25 per MWh dispatched to the grid. That is, every additional MWh delivered, costs an additional $25 to produce; therefore, the marginal cost of production is (at least) $25 per MWh, not zero.

In this glossy tissue of lies (click here for the pdf) Infigen (aka Babcock and Brown) sets out the financial “performance” of its American and Australian operations. From page 26, here’s Table 16 relating to its Australian operations, where it reports “Operating Cost (A$/MWh) as $23.93 for 2012/13 compared to an “Average Price” of electricity sold of $96.57 per MWh.

Infigen operating costs

From page 29, here’s Table 20 where, on total operating costs of $36.3 million, $17.2 million is attributed to “Turbine O&M” (ie operation and maintenance); $0.9 million to “Balance of plant”; and $7.5 million to “Other direct costs”. Infigen’s US operations reported similar operating costs of US$24.18 per MWh for 2012/13 (refer to Infigen’s report at page 20 and Table 15 on page 24).

Infigen costs 2

Those typical operating costs figures are hardly evidence that wind farms operate “at or near zero marginal cost”; but are evidence entirely to the contrary. Bear in mind that wind farm operating costs of $25 per MWh compare with the ability of Victorian coal fired power generators to profitably deliver power to the grid at less than $25 per MWh.

The bulk of wind farm operating costs are taken up by maintenance and repairs (see Table 20 above).

Blades, bearings, gearboxes and generators naturally wear out over time; and often require repair or replacement within the first few years of operation.

At AGL’s Hallett 1 (Brown Hill) wind farm near Jamestown in SA, 45 Indian designed and built Suzlon s88s were used; commencing operation in April 2008. Not long into their operation stress fractures began appearing in the 44m long blades; Suzlon claimed that there was a “design fault” and was forced by AGL to replace the blades on all 45 turbines under warranty. The “old” blades are still sitting on the wharf at Port Pirie, apparently awaiting collection by the manufacturer – now known as Senvion: collection is highly unlikely, as Suzlon/Senvion is in deep, deep financial difficulty.

While that debacle was covered by warranty, not every blade, bearing, gearbox or generator replacement is. The cost of replacing major components is colossal, requiring the use of heavy cranes with specialist operators clocking up rates of between $10-30,000 per day – and effective rates of up to $100,000 per day if a heavy crawler crane is required – bear in mind these giant cranes have to be transported substantial distances to the site as oversize loads, involving police escorts – all at substantial cost.

Heavy-haulage-cranes-cts-11

Over the “life” of a turbine (purported to be 25 years by the manufacturers) metal fatigue, fair wear and tear means that the cost of maintaining, repairing and replacing major components can only increase, not decrease, over time. Noting that the manufacturer’s warranty is ordinarily 2 or, perhaps, 3 years at best – this leaves the wind farm operator picking up an ever increasing repair and maintenance tab. That (substantial) increase in the costs of operation over time (as against a fixed revenue stream set under PPAs – see below) means that it becomes uneconomic to repair and maintain turbines beyond about 12 years of operation.

In this detailed study, Gordon Hughes looked at the rapid decline in turbine efficiency, and showed that turbine output declined rapidly after about 10 years of operation. That decline was in part the product of the increased need for repairs, replacement and maintenance over time (resulting in downtime and, therefore, periods of zero output); and the natural deterioration in the mechanical componentry of the turbine, leading to decreased output as the turbine’s components wore out.

It’s that simple fact of engineering and mechanical life that led Hughes to conclude that the average (economic) life span for modern (onshore) wind turbines is about 12 years (see our post here).

The other trap laid by the Clean Energy Council is the “wind power is reducing the wholesale price of electricity” red herring – and is also reducing retail prices. To his credit, Adam doesn’t appear to fall for the trap, but we’ll deal with it anyway.

The first point is dealt with fairly simply: households and businesses couldn’t care less what the wholesale price of electricity is: they get served with power bills from retail providers which, funnily enough, involve the retail price. And there is absolutely no argument that Australian retail power prices have gone through the roof in the last decade. Australia’s wind power capital, South Australia suffers the highest retail power prices in the world (see page 11 of this paper: FINAL-INTERNATIONAL-PRICE-COMPARISON-FOR-PUBLIC-RELEASE-19-MARCH-2012 – the figures are from 2011 and SA has seen prices jump since then).

Retail prices are impacted by the mandatory RET and wind power in at least two major ways.

The first is the price fixed under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) struck between wind power generators and retailers. That price guarantees a return to the generator of between $90 to $120 per MWh for every MW delivered to the grid. In this company report, AGL (in its capacity as a wind power retailer) complains about the fact that it is bound to pay $112 per MWh under PPAs with wind power generators: these PPAs run for 25 years.

Wind power generators can and do (happily) dispatch power to the grid at prices approaching zero – when the wind is blowing and wind power output is high; at night-time, when demand is low, wind power generators will even pay the grid manager to take their power (ie the dispatch price becomes negative)(see our post here). However, the retailer still pays the wind power generator the same guaranteed price under their PPA – irrespective of the dispatch price: in AGL’s case, $112 per MWh.

PPA prices are 3-4 times the cost that retailers pay to conventional generators; as noted above, retailers can purchase coal-fired power from Victoria’s Latrobe Valley for around $25 per MWh – and the dispatch price ranges from $30-$40, on average.

The second is the cost of backing up wind power when it fails to deliver every day and hundreds of times each year (see our posts here and here).

Fast start-up peaking power plants – predominantly Open Cycle Gas Turbines – cost a fortune to run ($200-$300 per MWh, depending on the spot price for gas on the day).

When wind power output collapses the shortfall is made up with “spinning reserve” held by coal/gas-thermal plants and OCGTs. Bidding between generators with high operating costs sees the dispatch price quickly rocket from the usual $30-40 mark, to in excess of $300 (otherwise OCGT operators will simply not supply to the grid); and, if a wind power output collapse coincides with a spike in demand, the dispatch price rockets all the way to regulated cap of $12,500 per MWh (see our postshere and here).

Call us spoilsports, but STT is always keen to let the facts get in the way of a “good” wind industry story.

Facts

A Sad Story About the Reality of Wind Turbines….

Short Story: Wind

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Image courtesy of Intrepid Wanders.

 

Dad took me to look at the turbines again today. I didn’t want to go. We’ve been every day this week, and he just gets angry and upset. I suppose I can understand it; I’m not altogether happy about it either, but I’ve got used to it. And it’s only been three weeks, the wind is bound to start blowing again soon.

I suggested to Mum that she go along instead, but she gave me “that look” and I realised that wasn’t going to happen. I even offered to do the washing while she was out – we’ve had to start washing our clothes in an old bath in the yard. It’s a nasty job and I hate doing it – not that we have all that much washing at the moment; we tend to wear most of our clothes to keep warm. Anyway, with no hot water we don’t tend to bathe all that often. Nobody does. I don’t even notice the smell any more. It’s not all that practical at this time of year anyway, the clothes just freeze on the line and don’t dry at all. But despite my offer she said she’d rather stay at home and look after Parton.

Parton is our dog. He’s a cross between a German Shepherd and, well, quite a lot of other types of dog probably, but at least one of them must have been St Bernard because he has a very woolly coat and he’s very cuddly. I think that’s the real reason Mum wanted to stay at home; Parton is a good way to keep warm.

Dad keeps going on about the house not having a chimney. He says we could have gathered driftwood from the beach, like he and Mum did when they were first married and money was tight and they couldn’t afford coal. Not that there’s any coal nowadays; and anyway they say it caused Global Warming, and apparently that was a bad thing. I’m not sure about that. I think we could maybe do with some Global Warming around now. Anyway, he says, it should be a lesson for when I’m older: never buy a house without a chimney.

So we go to the site, Dad walking, I ride alongside him on my bike. Normally we’d have taken the car, but without power we can’t recharge the batteries, so it’s just sitting in the street where it’s been for the last few weeks. We leaned on the fence, and I can see one of the turbines just turning, ever so slowly, but at least it’s turning. I point it out to Dad but he just grunts. After a while, he spreads his arms as if embracing the scene, and says “Behold, the future! Abundant clean energy for all!”

I try to “Behold”, but all I see is row upon row of turbines, stretching far into the distance. Dad says they cover about thirty square miles, and much of the land here used to be common land, shared by the people who live around here. Around 2020 it was taken over by the Department of Energy and Mother Earth to protect the natural environment. D.E.M.E. sold the land to a Chinese Energy company, who promptly covered it with Wind Turbines.

I tell Dad to look on the bright side. At least while they aren’t turning the birds will be OK, and as if on cue a large flock of geese fly overhead, their V formation broken temporarily as they fly between the blades, heading south. Dad almost smiled, although it was more a kind of grimace. He doesn’t say anything; just watches the birds until at first they become a fuzzy blob in the distance, and then finally disappear out of sight.

One Saturday afternoon around this time last year Dad had come home really upset. He’d been to the garage to pick up a replacement part for the car, and on his way back he’d stopped at a lay-by alongside the turbine’s field. That day, just like today, a flock of geese had been heading South; but unlike today the turbines had been working. With tears in his eyes, Dad described how more than half the birds had been smacked out of the sky by the turbine blades. When he saw what was happening, he climbed the fence and ran into the field to see what he could do to help the poor creatures, but there was nothing he could do but weep over them; they were all either dead or dying; broken beyond any hope of repair.

We walk back in silence, the sky glows deep red as the sun goes down, then darkness.

I’m not sure how long it was before we noticed the breeze. Gentle at first, then stronger. As we near the town the street lights are coming to life. Getting closer, people come out of their houses, talking, making jokes, laughing. Dad wants to talk to everyone; handshakes, backslapping, and all smiles. Happy, hopeful faces.

Back inside we shrug off our coats, gloves, hats. It’s warm inside. The lights are on. The TV is on. Mum is snuggled up with Parton and a cup of hot chocolate. I dash to the kitchen to put the kettle on. Dad says he’d like a coffee.

I bring the drinks through to the living room, hand Dad his coffee and settle down into the armchair by the door.

It’s that fit weatherman tonight, the blonde one who always wears that wrinkly jacket. I wonder, not for the first time, if he has a girlfriend. Mum starts to say something but Dad tells her to shush.

…”… pressure that has brought the cold weather has finally moved on, and the next few days will bring quite a bit of rain to most parts, and strong winds affecting travel throughout the North West. By the weekend things should settle down again, a new high pressure system is moving in from the Atlantic which will bring much calmer weather for the next couple of weeks … “

Big Green Lie – Tells it Like It Is!!!

Why the Liberals won the election and why this Province is nothing more than a “banana republic”!

Posted: June 22, 2014

Sad days in Ontario. Greed, apathy and an intentional dismembering of our Democracy over many decades by various Governments has finally exposed all that’s wrong with allowing an unfettered gang of power mongers and corrupt industrialists to run a Province.

Short term for a place like this on this planet: banana republic

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Courtesy Bing

One can’t call these past few decades as being ruled by politicians, who are nothing more than “puppets” doing the bidding of their backroom masters, “managed, handled and groomed” to say whatever they are told, all 3 parties that have held the reins of power in this Province. The end result of this type of leadership?……….a bankrupt, divided and lost society with little or no way out from a future mortgaged to the hilt!

The only solution for any “sanity” or financial stability is for people to move and relocate somewhere else in canada that may offer some light.

Sad days in Ontario!!!!

Ontario’s worrying banana republic problem

The Ontario legislature operates under a set of rules that make it nearly impossible for a single opposition party to move motions of non-confidence. This is not normal and it is not democratic.

PETER LOEWEN June 21/2014

Imagine a friend just returned from a country you knew nothing about. During her visit, your friend took an interest in the country’s politics and the election they just held. Suppose she told you the following.

First, the governing party had a leader who, under accusation of major political corruption and the threat of sanction by the legislature, suspended that same legislature until his successor could be chosen. His successor, despite inheriting a government under police investigation, was able to survive nearly two years.

If your mind was an inquiring one, you might want to know how a party could survive in such conditions. Your friend tells you that despite holding only a minority of seats, they were able to routinely buy off the third party through policy concessions. Worse, they’d been able to avoid tests of confidence because these are essentially impossible to move under the rules of the legislature.

Things get stranger and they get worse. When the government was finally brought down, they were returned with a majority government. Now, the counting was fair and the party’s campaign was above board. But alongside their campaign was a massive one run by unions and interest groups. Those groups seemed sometimes indistinguishable from the campaign personnel of the governing party. And those same unions were preparing to negotiate labour agreements with the party in power. These fellow-travellers could raise and spend money without limit and effectively without oversight.

This cake comes with icing. The provincial police force actively inserted itself into the campaign, releasing information about investigations into the governing party. At the same time, the police union campaigned against the principal opposition party……………………………

MORE to this Story in Ottawa Citizen of June 21/2014

Global Warming Alarmists Not Ashamed to Lie, to Push Their Agenda!

The scandal of fiddled global warming data

The US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record

A scene from 'The Day After Tomorrow': in reality, officially approved scientists fudge the data

A scene from ‘The Day After Tomorrow’: in reality, officially approved scientists fudge the data

Goddard shows how, in recent years, NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The effect of this has been to downgrade earlier temperatures and to exaggerate those from recent decades, to give the impression that the Earth has been warming up much more than is justified by the actual data. In several posts headed “Data tampering at USHCN/GISS”, Goddard compares the currently published temperature graphs with those based only on temperatures measured at the time. These show that the US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record; whereas the latest graph, nearly half of it based on “fabricated” data, shows it to have been warming at a rate equivalent to more than 3 degrees centigrade per century.

When I first began examining the global-warming scare, I found nothing more puzzling than the way officially approved scientists kept on being shown to have finagled their data, as in that ludicrous “hockey stick” graph, pretending to prove that the world had suddenly become much hotter than at any time in 1,000 years. Any theory needing to rely so consistently on fudging the evidence, I concluded, must be looked on not as science at all, but as simply a rather alarming case study in the aberrations of group psychology.

Global Warming Alarmists Have an Agenda…Mother Nature refuses to Co-operate!

THE GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS?

CLIMATE MODELS ALL WRONGLY PREDICTED

WARMING, SO LET’S CALL IT A DISCREPANCY

Ross McKitrick — Financial Post — June 17, 2014

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) still uses the iconic word “unequivocal” to describe warming of the climate system over the past century, a new word has slipped into its lexicon: the “hiatus.” They have begun referring, with a bit of hesitant throat-clearing, to “the warming hiatus since 1998.”

Both satellites and surface records show that sometime around 2000, temperature data ceased its upward path and leveled off. Over the past 100 years there is a statistically significant upward trend in the data amounting to about 0.7 oC per century. If one looks only at the past 15 years though, there is no trend.

A leveling-off period is not, on its own, the least bit remarkable. What makes it remarkable is that it coincides with 20 years of rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Since 1990, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen 13%, from 354 parts per million (ppm) to just under 400 ppm.

According to the IPCC, estimated “radiative forcing” of greenhouse gases (the term it uses to describe the expected heating effect) increased by 43% after 2005. Climate models all predicted that this should have led to warming of the lower troposphere and surface. Instead, temperatures flatlined and even started declining. This is the important point about the pause in warming. Indeed, the word that ought to have entered the IPCC lexicon is not “hiatus” but “discrepancy.”   Continue reading here……

Webshots_Daily_Photo_200704_02_52238-2

Proof That Climate Change is Much Older than the Industrial Age!

Receding Swiss Glaciers Reveal 4000 Year Old Forests

– Warmists Try To Suppress Findings

JUNE 21, 2014
 By Paul Homewood

 

As many sources, including HH Lamb, have pointed out, back in the Bronze Age around 2000BC, the climate in the Alps was much warmer than now.

It is therefore no surprise to find direct evidence of this from geologist Dr. Christian Schlüchter, Professor emeritus at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

Larry Bell at Newsmax has the story:

 

Dr. Christian Schlüchter’s discovery of 4,000-year-old chunks of wood at the leading edge of a Swiss glacier was clearly not cheered by many members of the global warming doom-and-gloom science orthodoxy.

This finding indicated that the Alps were pretty nearly glacier-free at that time, disproving accepted theories that they only began retreating after the end of the little ice age in the mid-19th century. As he concluded, the region had once been much warmer than today, with “a wild landscape and wide flowing river.”

Dr. Schlüchter’s report might have been more conveniently dismissed by the entrenched global warming establishment were it not for his distinguished reputation as a giant in the field of geology and paleoclimatology who has authored/coauthored more than 250 papers and is a professor emeritus at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

Then he made himself even more unpopular thanks to a recent interview titled “Our Society is Fundamentally Dishonest” which appeared in the Swiss publication Der Bund where he criticized the U.N.-dominated institutional climate science hierarchy for extreme tunnel vision and political contamination.

Following the ancient forest evidence discovery Schlüchter became a target of scorn. As he observes in the interview, “I wasn’t supposed to find that chunk of wood because I didn’t belong to the close-knit circle of Holocene and climate researchers. My findings thus caught many experts off guard: Now an ‘amateur’ had found something that the [more recent time-focused] Holocene and climate experts should have found.”

Other evidence exists that there is really nothing new about dramatic glacier advances and retreats. In fact the Alps were nearly glacier-free again about 2,000 years ago. Schlüchter points out that “the forest line was much higher than it is today; there were hardly any glaciers. Nowhere in the detailed travel accounts from Roman times are glaciers mentioned.”

Schlüchter criticizes his critics for focusing on a time period which is “indeed too short.” His studies and analyses of a Rhone glacier area reveal that “the rock surface had [previously] been ice-free 5,800 of the last 10,000 years.”

Such changes can occur very rapidly. His research team was stunned to find trunks of huge trees near the edge of Mont Miné Glacier which had all died in just a single year. They determined that time to be 8,200 years ago based upon oxygen isotopes in the Greenland ice which showed marked cooling.

Casting serious doubt upon alarmist U.N.-IPCC projections that the Alps will be nearly glacier-free by 2100, Schlüchter poses several challenging questions: “Why did the glaciers retreat in the middle of the 19th century, although the large CO2 increase in the atmosphere came later? Why did the Earth ‘tip’ in such a short time into a warming phase? Why did glaciers again advance in the 1880s, 1920s, and 1980s? . . . Sooner or later climate science will have to answer the question why the retreat of the glacier at the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850 was so rapid.”

Although we witness ongoing IPCC attempts to blame such developments upon evil fossil-fueled CO2 emissions, that notion fails to answer these questions. Instead, Schlüchter believes that the sun is the principal long-term driver of climate change, with tectonics and volcanoes acting as significant contributors.

Regarding IPCC integrity with strong suspicion, Schlüchter recounts a meeting in England that he was “accidentally” invited to which was led by “someone of the East Anglia Climate Center who had come under fire in the wake of the Climategate e-mails.”

As he describes it: “The leader of the meeting spoke like some kind of Father. He was seated at a table in front of those gathered and he took messages. He commented on them either benevolently or dismissively.”

Schlüchter’s view of the proceeding took a final nosedive towards the end of the discussion. As he noted: “Lastly it was about tips on research funding proposals and where to submit them best. For me it was impressive to see how the leader of the meeting collected and selected information.”

As a number of other prominent climate scientists I know will attest, there’s one broadly recognized universal tip for those seeking government funding. All proposals with any real prospects for success should somehow link climate change with human activities rather than to natural causes. Even better, those human influences should intone dangerous consequences.

Schlüchter warns that the reputation of science is becoming more and more damaged as politics and money gain influence. He concludes, “For me it also gets down to the credibility of science . . . Today many natural scientists are helping hands of politicians, and are no longer scientists who occupy themselves with new knowledge and data. And that worries me.”

Yes. That should worry everyone.

 

 

 

 The only real surprise in this story is why the so-called “experts”, that he was up against, were so surprised by his findings. There is ample evidence from HH Lamb and others that temperatures in this part of the world were higher then than now. Apart from anything else, there is the body of Oetzi the iceman, which was discovered a few years ago in a glacier, high up in the Alps, near the Austro-Italian border, at an altitude of about 10,000 feet. Oetzi had attempted to cross the Alps about 5000 years ago.

 

 

 

 

Anyone, with the slightest knowledge of the Alps, would know that nobody these days would attempt to cross a glacier at this height with the sort of clothing and equipment available to Oetzi.

In 2008, the BBC offered a fuller explanation.

 

Melting alpine glaciers are revealing fascinating clues to Neolithic life in the high mountains.

And, as a conference of archaeologists and climatologists meeting in the Swiss capital Berne has been discussing, the finds are also providing key indicators to climate change.

Everyone knows the story of Oetzi the Ice Man, found in a glacier on the Austrian-Italian border in 1991. Oetzi was discovered at an altitude of over 3,000m.

He lived in about 3,300 BC, leading to speculation that the Alps may have had more human habitation than previously suspected.

Now, more dramatic findings from the 2,756m Schnidejoch glacier in Switzerland have confirmed the theory.

It all started at the end of the long hot summer of 2003, when a Swiss couple, hiking across a melting Schnidejoch, came across a piece of wood that aroused their curiosity.

They took it down with them, and gave it to canton Berne’s archaeological department, where careful examination and carbon dating revealed the piece of wood to be an arrow quiver made of birch bark, dating from about 3000 BC.

Unique findings

“Finds in the Alps are very rare anyway,” explains Albert Hafner, chief archaeologist with the canton of Berne. “But this is unique; we don’t know of a quiver like this anywhere else in the world.”

At first, the news of the find was kept quiet; historians feared treasure hunters on the Schnidejoch as the ice melted. But teams of archaeologists went up, and more and more artefacts were discovered.

Leather (University of Berne)

The ice has protected the leather for thousands of years

“We now have the complete bow equipment, quiver and arrows,” says Mr Hafner “And we have, surprisingly, a lot of organic material like leather, parts of shoes and a trouser leg, that we wouldn’t normally find.”

And the finds are not confined to 3000 BC. Some of the leather found, and a fragment of a wooden bowl, date from 4500 BC, older even than Oetzi, making them the oldest objects ever found in the Alps.

And from later periods, a Bronze Age pin has been discovered, as well as Roman coins and a fibula, and items dating from the early Middle Ages.

Key to climate change

What fascinates scientists about the age of the finds is that they correspond to times when climate specialists have already calculated the Earth was going through an especially warm period, caused by fluctuations in the orbital pattern of the Earth in relation to the Sun.

At these times, historians now speculate, the high mountain regions became accessible to humans.

 

The Roman coins found on the Schnidejoch are being seen as proof that the Romans used this route to cross the Alps from Italy to their territories in northern Europe. Interestingly, one of the Earth’s chillier periods coincides with the decline of the Roman empire.

 

 

As the Earth cooled and the glaciers grew again, the Schnidejoch and other passes like it would have been blocked by ice. So did fluctuations in the Earth’s climate contribute to the fall of the Roman empire?

“Well that may be stretching things a bit,” laughs Martin Grosjean. “But what we do know is that the climate has fluctuated throughout history; in the past the driving force for the changes was the Earth’s orbital pattern, now the driving force is green house gas emissions.”

Global patterns

For Martin Grosjean, the leather items found on the Schnidejoch, dated at over 5,000 years old, are proof, if any more were needed, that the Earth is now warming up.

“The leather is the jewel among the finds,” he says. “If leather is exposed to the weather, to sun, wind and rain, it disintegrates almost immediately.

Tool reconstruction (University of Berne)

Bit by bit, the Neolithic way of life is being revealed

“The fact that we still find these 5,000-year-old pieces of leather tells us they were protected by the ice all this time, and that the glaciers have never been smaller than in the year 2003 and the years following.”

Scientists and archaeologists from all over the world attended the conference in Berne to hear about the Schnidejoch findings, and present research of their own.

Patterns have begun to emerge: researchers in Canada’s Yukon region have found evidence of Neolithic farming and domesticated animals at high altitudes.

Again, they correspond with the calculations climatologists have made about the Earth’s warmer periods.

Unexpected history

In Norway, Atle Nesje has been analysing glaciers for the past 25 years. His calculations for the Norwegian icefields show a similar shrinkage and growth pattern to the alpine glaciers.

“Now these archaeological findings seem to fit quite nicely with our glacier reconstructions,” he says. “This is very important in the debate about climate change in the past, the present, and also in the future.”

Shoe reconstruction (BBC)

A reconstruction of the shoes these mountain people used to wear

For historians however, the Schnidejoch is unexpected evidence that early man was far more at home in the high Alps than had been previously thought.

“In 1991, we were completely surprised by Oetzi,” remembers Albert Hafner. “Up to then, we had always thought the Alps were not used, that people never went there.

“Now with Schnidejoch we know they were rather keen on mountaineering. It was a big challenge for them; look at the shoes, no Goretex for them. But we know they went up regularly.”

 

 

 

 

The reality is straightforward. The Alps, and regions elsewhere, were much warmer than now around 5000 years ago, and, indeed, for most of the time before that going back to the end of the Ice Age. There is absolutely no evidence at all that suggests current temperatures are, in any way, unusual.

Enviro-wackos Just Want to Scare People. It Doesn’t Have to be True!

Moore’s Law: CO2 Good; Climate Change Bunk; Greens Follow Religious Fundamentalism

 

Dr-Moore-Photo-2010-120x180[1]

“Climate change” is a theory for which there is “no scientific proof at all” says the co-founder of Greenpeace. And the green movement has become a “combination of extreme political ideology and religious fundamentalism rolled into one.” 

Patrick Moore, a Canadian environmentalist who helped found Greenpeace in the Seventies but subsequently left in protest at its increasingly extreme, anti-scientific, anti-capitalist stance, argues that the green position on climate change fails the most basic principles of the scientific method.

“The certainty among many scientists that humans are the main cause of climate change, including global warming, is not based on the replication of observable events. It is based on just two things, the theoretical effect of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly carbon dioxide, and the predictions of computer models using those theoretical calculations. There is no scientific “proof” at all.”

Moore goes on to list some key facts about “climate change” which are ignored by true believers.

1. The concentration of CO2 in the global atmosphere is lower today, even including human emissions, than it has been during most of the existence of life on Earth.

2. The global climate has been much warmer than it is today during most of the existence of life on Earth. Today we are in an interglacial period of the Pleistocene Ice Age that began 2.5 million years ago and has not ended.

Wind Turbines will NEVER Be Ready for Prime Time!

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK

If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause…

 

Friday, June 20, 2014

 

Study finds wind power increases costs of electricity production and CO2 emissions

A study from EIKE, the European Institute of Climate & Energy, finds based upon the experience in Germany and the fundamental statistical principles that intermittent and unpredictable wind power cannot serve as a baseline power source, wind power peaks are often wasted and have no correlation with power demand, there is no available means of storing wasted wind power peaks, and thus, the costs of electricity production and CO2 emissions [from firing up the fossil fuel baseline power required] will greatly increase, not decrease, due to wind power.

Google translation, not edited:

Correlation of the feed-in from wind turbines makes base load capacity in Germany impossible

by Dr. – Ing Detlef Ahlborn

When it comes to studies, to develop strategies to secure electricity supply of so-called renewable energies, one finds invariably only vague statements. In this paper it is shown why a strategy for achieving a secure electricity supply from wind turbines can not be developed, and in a country the size of Germany is not developable. Each of these strategies will fail to physical laws and fundamental principles of mathematical statistics. Below is this to be justified in a clear way.

 

Base load, medium load, peak load. Image. Amprion

With the current expansion are all wind and solar energy plants in Germany together not baseload. A corresponding popular scientific study was published by the author on the Internet at http://www.vernunftkraft.de/statistik/. There, the statement was made that “the secured capacity of all wind turbines is to be recognized in Germany together with zero.” This case has now occurred, as the entire wind power on March 13, 2014, to 34 MW (which is one-thousandth of installed capacity or rated output of 34.000MW) has fallen. The practical total failure of wind power is therefore now occurred in Germany.

At this consensus among engineers and scientists can not be shaken, and finally the Einspeisekurven of all wind turbines in Germany are publicly available.

It is therefore not surprising that there is only “vague statements” in relevant studies here. To this fact, the lobby pushes gathered around with their subordinate institutions with semi-specific generalities.

Performs an expansion of wind power for smoothing the supply?

In the evaluation of the further expansion to an equalization of the supply, the estimates vary widely among scientists. The sense after about IWES in Kassel considers that a further expansion for smoothing and thus to equalize the supply leads. So it says in the verfertigten in Kassel on IWES “Agora short study of the development of wind energy in Germany” for example: “A large-scale distribution of plants consequently leads to a smoothing of supply.”

Anyone who has ever dealt with mathematical statistics, sees “at first sight” that this thesis is mathematically unsustainable. The dispersion or variability of a random size, such as the number thrown eyes of a sequence of 50 tosses of a cube is “measured” in mathematics by the so-called variance. If one performs this cube experiment with 2 dice (and thus the expansion of wind power includes in this experiment, because the dice are rolled with more cubes) and forms the sum of the spots numbers and consider the scattering of this sum, it is found that the scattering ( and increases the variance!) the sum and does not sink. This statement is evident, because the numbers fluctuate in a cube 1-6, with two litters 2-12. Underlying this is the addition theorem for the variance of mathematical statistics.He says that the variance of a sum of random numbers as the sum of the variances of the individual random numbers.With each summand the variance and thus the scattering and, ultimately, the variability increases.

The conclusion at this point is beyond doubt:

An expansion of wind power increases the dispersion of the feed. The team fielded by IWES scientists claim for smoothing is in clear contradiction with unique sets of mathematical statistics. The claim is simply wrong!

If the infeed is perpetuated by the expansion of wind power?

Looking at the issue of complementarity of wind turbines to a “stabilization” of the feed, should be brought to see more detail. However, the deeper connections of mathematical statistics are “somewhat tricky” (new German: more sophisticated): The described dice experiment, we now want to carry with 3, 4, 5, and finally with a very large number of dice and the sum of the reflected eyes Numbers consider it. This sum we want to make in thought, because the feeds of all individual wind turbines are added in our grid completely analogous in every moment. If the following statements we perform this experiment with 50 cubes immediately clear:

  • As the sum of the number is very rarely 50 or 300 shown because it is very unlikely that 50 times the number of eyes will fall 1 or 6,
  • The number 175 is frequent, because there are many combinations of eyes figures that lead to the sum of 175.
Figure SEQ Figure \ * ARABIC 1 Total number of eyes at 50 cubes

If one evaluates the frequency distribution of this sum from, it can be seen that this sum is distributed approximately according to the known normal distribution Gaussian. This

Knowledge is the statement of a fundamental theorem of mathematical statistics, known as the “Central Limit Theorem”. He states the following: If one forms the sum of a large number of random numbers, then this sum follows a normal distribution, the more accurate the larger the number of summands. In the described experiment cube ie the sum of the figures eyes to the value of 175 will vary, the minimum value can be 50, the maximum value may be 300. If one were to interpret the sum of the eyes numbers than the sum formed from 50 individual feeds the feed services, you can initially set the statement can be made that this imaginary random “performance” is baseload, because she never falls practically to zero and varies about a mean value. The course of 50 litters in succession formed the sum is shown in Figure 1. It can be seen that the sums eye number varies around a mean value, and practically never drops to small values.

Figure SEQ Figure \ * ARABIC 2 The actual supply of wind turbines in Germany

Now the electric grid in Germany is the sum of the feeds from 24,000 wind turbines. The number of these summands so statistically exceeds the number being used here of 50 cubes by orders of magnitude. Due to the aforementioned dice experiment is therefore to be expected that the sum of the sources leads to a smooth curve, which would resemble the one in Figure 1, at least.

This is without a doubt not the case: The course of the feed shows the known fluctuation behavior with the extreme fluctuations of injected power. In addition, the total supply of all wind turbines Germany does not follow the normal distribution Gaussian (Figure 3). Thus the course of the actual feed-in is initially very evidently contrary to the statements that would be expected of the central limit theorem of mathematical statistics for the fed wind power

The transfer of the results for the simple cube experiment on the total supply of the wind turbines is obviously unjustified.

Now what is the problem?

First, the injected power of a single windmill is distributed differently than the eyes number of dice. The latter is uniformly distributed, ie each eye number is equally likely = 1/6, corresponding to a probability of 16.67%. In a small wind turbine performance are much more likely than large ones. However, this is not the reason for the deviation of the curves, finally you can generalize the “central limit theorem” of statistics on any kind of distribution. [1]

The difference between the test cubes with 50 dice and adding the feeds from 24000 (!) Wind turbines is that the reflected eyes of each number cube “has nothing to do” with that of another cube. The values ​​of all dices are thrown independently in the statistical sense. This statement does not apply to supplies, the individual wind turbines because the wind speed at various wind turbine locations are similar in virtually any weather conditions in large areas, ie the individual feeds are not statistically independent. When the wind blows strongly in the north of Hesse, which is virtually always in the south of Hesse the case. This statement is also obvious in the usual size of low pressure areas and apply mutatis mutandis to each state. This simple fact causes high as well as low feeds at the same time virtually always occur in large areas. It is said that the feeds are correlated with one another, ie, in large-scale environment of a randomly chosen reference system can be traced back the feeds of all plants in this a reference plant. If you know the power fed a reference system, so you can determine the capacities of all stations in the large-scale environment of the performance of the reference system with high probability. This fact, the content of the statistical correlation. For the entire area of ​​Germany corresponds each reference system in a statistical sense just a cube from the cube experiment in which the question is asked, by how many reference systems shown feeding into Germany can be so understood. This number measures the intensity of the correlation. If this number is small, the correlation is strong, this number is large, the correlation is fairly weak. The cube experiment has shown: the larger the number, the better the feeds can be offset with each other. If this number is small, however, a mutual compensation of the feeds is possible in principle, benefits may but fall again and again to very small values, because it frequently occurs in less than 5 independent reference systems that supply all systems decreases to very small values. In this case, the total supply is in principle not baseload. In this context, wind turbines have another problem: low performance are very common, and are therefore very likely high performances are rare, and are therefore unlikely. This fact is then reflected in the frequency distribution of the total feed, which is shown in Figure 3.

Figure SEQ Figure \ * ARABIC 4 Frequency of actual and calculated from three reference plants feed

This distribution is not normally distributed without any doubt according to Gauss, from which it can be immediately concluded that their analysis to a small enough number of independent reference systems.

It can be shown that this “small number” is only at 3, ie the total sum feed in Germany can be traced back to only three reference plants. This relationship is shown in Figure 4. The feeds all plants are therefore among themselves highly correlated. Thus, although these three reference systems are not mutually correlated, all 23997 remaining plants can be traced back to these three reference systems. Published in the named Agora study on page 13 knowledge, “that plants can complement each other in different locations” is certainly correct, however it does not follow that the complementarity of the different feeds to a base load. As they say in mathematics, the condition of statistical independence of two power supplies for the base load capacity is necessary but not sufficient.

It does not matter whether individual plants can complement each other in different locations (that are statistically independent from each other), but how large is the number of facilities that are statistically independent from each other in different locations. If the total supply of all equipment can currently be traced back to only 3 statistically independent reference plants in Germany, can not reasonably be expected that the number of reference plants and thus statistically independent feeds will grow significantly due to the construction of facilities.

An expansion of wind power due to the proven strong dependence of the feeds themselves not help to stabilize the performance. The prepared by IWES on behalf of Agora claim would be desirable, but turns out to be incorrect and contrary to the central limit theorem, a fundamental theorem of mathematical statistics, which was proved in 1922 by the mathematician Lindenberg.

Conclusion:

1 Because of the fundamental principles of mathematical statistics the summary feed-in from wind turbines in the area of ​​Germany is in principle not baseload. The development of wind power in our country can not and will not change anything essential.

  • 2 The power peaks will increase due to the expansion of wind power further and further exacerbate the known problems of overproduction of non-recyclable stream of evils such as the so-called negative prices in the stock market.
  • 3 There are no large technically available memory efficient technology for the use of the rising power peaks, so that the power supply without power plants in the background can not be operated. It does not matter whether they are operated with gas, lignite or hard coal. The exit from the nuclear power plants will force an expansion of conventional power plants. The costs associated with electricity production and carbon dioxide emissions will increase and not decrease.

 

[1] Those skilled in the art: In the mathematical literature, this message is known as a Lyapunov condition.